Consequences of HDTV Conversion

Latley I've been thinking alot about what will happen to the braodcast industry when the conversion to HDTV broadcasting is completed in February 2009.

Still Americans are uninformed about the fact that analog TV goes dark in 2009. When I cover HDTV in my college courses, students are surprised to know that there is a date in the near future when their analog TV's will no longer be able to pick up TV broadcasts unassisted. Of course most of them watch TV through a cable or satellite service so they aren't receiving any programming via a TV antenna. At the same time they, like most of the audience, are more likely to watch a cable-exclusive channel, as opposed to the local TV station carried via cable.

Given the continuing erosion of broadcasting's audience, the coming date when all TV broadcasts will be in HD, and the emerging availability of network TV shows via download, I'm speculating that local TV will be in trouble in 2009. The audience will be able to get their favorite TV show via iTunes or the network's website so when they can no longer receive their old analog TV channels, and they will be surprised and angry when this happens, they will no longer be watching local TV stations. Since many are not watching them now, the shutdown of analog will likely push even more people to go with cable or satellite.

For sure, we are in an interesting period in American TV broadcasting, where new technologies create change and old ways of doing business no longer work.